LE DESTIN D' ULYSSE

Après plusieurs années d'absence le retour, où que ce soit, peut être un exercise périlleux.

Pour qui rentre  de Beverly Hills, capitale de l'exagération plutôt que du goût, l'expérience peut être déconcertante, eu égard aux contrastes, trop grands. Il faut bien reconnaitre que les femmes comme les hommes, extra-terrestres là bas, sont souvent super-séduisants. Le parc automobile est à l'avenant. Il regorge de Bentleys, Rolls et Maserati. Le temps y est délicieux. Les incendies périodiques le sont moins.

La question de savoir où se cachent les personnes du troisième âge que l'on voit se promener tristement dans les supermarchés Européens, cabas armés, poussettes piégées .

Le look à Beverly Hills est tout. Trump, entre autres, l'a bien compris et sait où trouver les figurants.

L'Union Européenne se porte mal. Elle a mal à la France, à l'Allemagne. La Belgique est une mini malade qui continue bien que mal à fonctionner sans se soucier du "look". L'économie européeenne fait grise mine . Les personnalités providentielles d'hier ont laché prise. L'Europe finira paradoxalement par envier les Américains qui ont trouvé en la personne de Trump le metteur en scène d'un cauchemar annoncé.

Tout celà est d'autant plus navrant qu'il ne devrait pas être impossible de remédier à cette "baisse de tension" qui s'étend en Europe. Peut être les remous attendus aux Etats-Unis créeront-ils un réveil ici.

Il ne faut cependant pas oublier de prendre en considération le rôle du high tech et de l'I.A. qui n'ont que deux maitres, Trump § Co. et la Chine. C'est entre ces deux que se décidera l'avenir. L'UE regardera ce combat de géants du haut de son petit strapontin. LMa P.M. Italienne a bien senti d'où vient le vent.

Il serait injuste de noircir une partie du dyptique et d'ignorer l'autre volet. Or les Etats-Unis ne sont pas la Californie. Ils portent le poids d'un passé raciste et n'arrivent toujours pas à maîtriser les graves problèmes d'injustice, de soins de santé ou des sans abris, qui là bas comme ailleurs font désormais partie du paysage urbain. Une forme de religiosité hybride propre à l'Amérique a également engendré des comportements qui frisent la psychopathie. Les démocrates se retrouvent minoritaires. Ils ont perdu leurs alliés naturels et ne peuvent compter que les élites universitaires laiques, les  gays et autres progressistes , femmes et hommes à égalité. Que réserve l'avenir pour Kamala ?

Beverly Hills est en réalité un mirage, une représentation sans scénario, où le décor tient lieu de réalité. Ces avenues impressionantes, ces palais silencieux semblent vides. Il se trouve en moyenne quatre voitures dans le driveway et autant de garages, mais rien ne bouge. Seuls les inombrables jardiniers (toujours Latino) apportent vie et sourire dans ce scénario pour gens fortunés. Les immigrants nettoient mème le mobilier urbain...sans oublier les services de nettoyage qui se succèdent quotidiennement. Pour tout dire, le retour à Bruxelles, poubelle européenne, est brutal. 

Et pourtant la Belgique, pays absurde composé de trois comme la Trinité, continue sa morne existence, entourée de l'indifférence de ses voisins ou de l'Economist. Elle réussit peu mais ne dérange personne. Elle n'arrive mème pas à suivre les obligations élémentaires tout en continuant d'abriter l'UE et l'OTAN, sans se tenir aux obligations requises. Elle viole impunément les règles de gouvernance éclairée et a  besoin d'un semestre pour mettre en place des gouvernements. C'est à pleurer.

Restent les croquettes crevettes,  pour autant qu'il n'y ait pas de vent, car une crevette qui s'envole accroit encore plus le déficit environnemental. La Belgique finira par se croire être un fantasme de Magritte. Ce derenier a tout dit, point besoin d'alourdir la facture.

En Europe, comme ailleurs Ulysse est réduit à voyager en éco pour se retrouver paumé à l'arrivée.

DOES EARLY 2025 FEEL'S " UNHEIMLICH " ?

It is difficult to describe the mood in these first days of January 2025. Observers feel mostly lost in a labyrinth wherein there are more questions than answers.

Given the many unanswered, or better, the ever-evolving question marks and the actions of unpredictable agitators everywhere, there are no safety barriers available.

That the world took a rightward turn is undeniable. It is often overblown. The world has known similar, even worse cycles and was able to overcome them, albeit at an enormous cost.  The Ying and the Yang have their own cycles after all.

The upcoming Trump presidency freaks many people out. This president-elect is indeed a proven, often cunning dérangeur first. While he fits often in the "culture" of the punchline and counts his supporters, home and abroad, among the undesirables, his bluster is often overrated. He is more Nero than Caesar. At the end of the day, America's handrails will prove more shock resistant than he and the MAGA "sect" imagine. The sympathy he enjoys in some parts of the world rests often with his peers, who hold onto power at the cost of legitimacy. By the way, his selection of governmental associates in crime is hallucinating. Elon Musk's latest attack against the German chancellor and his embrace of the German ultra-right only feed "unease", mostly in the EU. Europeans might try to neutralize Trump through flattering his ego but they cannot compete with a MAGA court that counts more billionaires or opportunistic flatterers than  Europe (minus Russia). His cultural, anti-immigration, anti- Woke crusade will find followers everywhere, even in the EU's democratic heartland. The Italian PM is currently enjoying the lavish hospitality of the ogre in Mar a Lago.

Two years from now the American mid-term elections will be a good indicator of the durability of the "mad man strategy". Trump argues that his unpredictability is the cornerstone of his overall  success. He forgets, or better, is oblivious of the fact that the success stories of strategic diplomacy and peacemaking resulted from trust a la carte between often disagreeing parties.

History is not a popular topic with the A.I. generation. That is too bad since history teaches that brutalism doesn't last and that a bad cycle ends up exhausting itself. By the way, today one is confronted with even more ominous challenges like climate change, the disappearing act of mercy and tolerance, creeping civil and a-typical wars or le racisme nouveau under the form of le grand remplacement. These evils will outlive the aberrations of the new and not-so-new MAGA right. America's short history  is already is packed with freaks and gurus. One more will not make such a difference in the long run. The EU had better concentrate on its homegrown weaknesses since not doing so  will give Trump & Co. more arguments to start their own pathological war against all the EU stands for.

The current unheimliche Zeitgeist has mostly aggravating external causes but it must first be addressed by internal self- confident therapies. Mental exhaustion will take care of the rest. 

Secretary of State Antony Blinken's last interview should be a "obligatory reading" for all who need a compass in these uncertain times. Heart and brains beat drones.

LE PAPE ET LE ROI

Le pape a décidé d'entamer le processus de béatification de Baudouin 1, roi des Belges.

Cette décision, tombée du ciel (c'est le cas de le dire) a surpris le gouvernement, l'épiscopat  et les Belges.

Le Belge moyen est devenu indifférent par rapport à la religion, en premier lieu le catholicisme. Ce revirement se situe dans la foulée d'un nombre d'évènements . L'église a très mauvaise presse dans l'histoire de la colonisation du Congo. Les nombreux scandales qui sont venus à jour et le laxisme de l'autorité religieuse ont fortement ébranlé sa crédibilité. Les évènements au Moyen Orient ternissent en Europe à la fois les religions qui s'opposent sur place et la religion en général.

Personne ne conteste le charisme du roi Baudouin mais il n'était pas sans défauts. On peut s'interroger sur son attitude au sujet des évènements qui ont tristement marqué l'indépendance du Congo. Il a refusé de signer la loi votée par le Parlement, légalisant l'avortement conditionnel. On peut objecter qu'il a ainsi failli à son serment.

Ce roi reste estimé et aimé. Avec la reine Fabiola ils formaient un couple d'autant plus extraordinaire que les Cobourgs avant eux s'étaient surtout fait remarquer par leurs écarts.

Baudouin n'avait vraiment pas besoin d'un reliquaire alors qu'il reste dans les mémoires et les coeurs un homme souvent autoritaire mais toujours de classe.

THOMAS FRIEDMAN IN THE NYT ABOUT CHINA

Friedman's analysis regarding China is pertinent. People do not realize the strives China has made in half a century. From being Mao's laboratory it became the world's envy.

The amazing progress in all fields, mostly A.I., technology, weaponry and pertinence in strategic world affairs is spectacular. Otherwise the lift-off of such a large population in a more competitive middle-class society comes also with some risks. The Chinese family structure is obliged to move from the round table unit into the rectangular model, and this is easier said than done.

Today's world is not a pretty picture. China will also pay a price for its former embrace of countries that were already unreliable from the start and have become bankrupt today. Putin still does the same but it doesn't affect a combination of two known evils, while China has become the second superpower with the ambition to be the first. As Obama said before, Russia remains a regional power, with all the malign consequences it brings with it.

China is self-conscious and culturally arrogant. It always was so and President Xi knows how and when to activate Chinese historical identity. This is also a reason why Taiwan is such a difficult cypher to break. The Shanghai Communique lost one of its main creators in the person of Dr. Kissinger. Together with President Nixon he managed the coup du siècle, with the opening to China. Tragically, no successors were found for this golden, albeit uneven era of American diplomacy. Probably the Chinese will take into account Trump's shaky wanderings in international affairs because besides India and maybe Japan, the theater where partners meet runs empty. The EU became a poorhouse, the UK retains the pomp but has little pertinence and the Gulf States are too selfish to look beyond their narrow self-interest.

Chinese history is not always pleasant but it obeyed a set of rules and retained a discipline which makes for a predictable pattern of political and diplomatic behavior. It is not an aggressive power beyond what it considers to be its own (Taiwan, the Spratly's, border dispute with India). Overall it demands to be recognized as a major player. Nobody should underestimate the many susceptibilities which survived the emperors and dynasties that ruled by ritual and ceremonial distancing.

The new generation of Chinese entrepreneurs might look Western but their à la carte bonhomie shouldn't fool anyone. When the Chinese smile, the alarms should set off.

I for one will be happy to return. I'll read Friedman first.

THIS SINKING FEELING

I left America where Nero is waiting in the aisle. I arrived in Europe which is heading for the evil iceberg, oblivious.

Nobody can predict where Trump's ship of fools is heading. It is not hard to foresee a European meltdown wherein the normal powers get busted and wherein the "new normal" (Hungary, Italy, i.a.) starts to set the tone.

The EU is on life support. The former first tier countries, France and Germany, appear exhausted. Poland and the Baltics have their own regional legitimate priorities. Even the Netherlands appear suddenly insecure. If Belgium were ever get its act together it might be smart to return to the former Benelux  model which rivalled, often successfully, its European counterparts.

Brussels is the perfect place for hosting the European headquarters and NATO. It lives in its own chaos; it doesn't interfere in the latter and doesn't count in the former.

Nevertheless the overall geopolitical situation is dire. It is bad enough that the EU feels like a ship without a captain. America appears to become overloaded with mostly uninformed, clueless personae, whose lifespan solely depends on the mood of a narcissist. The happenings that come out of Mar-a-Lago have all the ingredients of some Peplum technicolor in the Sixties. Melania fits the bill.

All this could be almost trivial if the rest of the world were still on some normal trajectory. There are enough nutcases, human tragedies, evil players to make one homesick for the times of Kissinger. He was far from faultless but he was able to put roadblocks where need overturned caution. The current Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, will be missed. This man of modesty and class deserves gratitude and respect.

The final year of President Biden was a painful act to swallow. Fortunately his government and especially his close advisers in foreign affairs, defense, economy, finance, infrastructure, made for a sterling legacy. 

Miracles are a thing of the past. One must beware of a future wherein the weakness of one and the craziness of the other create the perfect storm.

LE PARDON DE BIDEN

Le président sortant a réalisé un beau score. Sans enthousiasmer les foules il pouvait se prévaloir d'un nombre considérable de succès et d'avances, sociale et économique. L'âge l'a rattrapé. Il est dommage qu'il n'a pas su maitriser une ultime étape qui le  laisse affaibli et surtout otage jugements contestables.

Voilà qu'il a pardonné son fils, en contradiction avec ses déclarations antérieures. On peut comprendre le père sans approuver pour autant le président. Ainsi il a terni sa réputation et embarassé les démocrates. Hunter Biden est une personnalité ambigue qui a manifestement mal géré des erreurs de jugement qu'il n'a d'ailleurs jamais contestées. En tout il a fait preuve d'un cynisme permanent.

Tout homme d'état a ses conseillers qui veillent à ce que les faiblesses et faux pas restent sous contrôle et n'apparaissent pas aux heures de grande écoute. Biden avait besoin d'être moins vu, moins subi, moins entendu. Ses sorties sont devenues pénibles et ses commentaires embarassants.

L'age peut exterminer la raison tempérée. D'aucuns ont maitrisé leur sortie...de Gaulle, Mandela, Gorbachev. Biden semble n'avoir retenu de l'âge que l'aspect naufrage. Il méritait mieux...

TOMORROW'S CURSE ?

There is a lot of talk with regard to Trump's recent electoral victory. It has been called lots of superlatives, while the balance of power has hardly changed. America remains mostly a house divided. What has happened is that the MAGA's will be in full control of all the branches of government until the midterms, two years from now. There still remain some Republican dinosaurs who might make the MAGA coup not a done deal.

Until the inauguration in January a lot can happen. Musk's new DOGE machine is ready for the onslaught. The various, often surreal nominations for the cabinet appear to be more about kissing the ring than about outlining policies.

How this freak show is being considered in Moscow or Beijing is a sobering consideration. That the same envoy will deal with Russia and Ukraine should scare any informed observer of international affairs. Suffice to go back to the "good days" of the Cold War and imagine that the Soviet Union and Finland were supervised under the same US umbrella. This would have been considered, rightly so, as a tacit approval of Finlandization...the Trump administration is already suspect of making deals with Russia, on the back of Ukraine or NATO. Everything has to be done to support Ukraine's independence and choice of destiny. One had better be beware of  giving Putin an inch because his aim is to break up a world order that collides with his interests. Unfortunately, while Trump is transactional and unreliable, the West is weak, devoid of leaders and lacking self- confidence and pride.

The foreseeable negative trend in America thrives partially because of European indecision. The military, social and economic disarray in the EU is accelerating because of a failing overall leadership. Germany is on hold, France becomes a Rubik cube with no end in sight. Here and there the populists raise their heads and fists. The undercurrent of anti-Semitism is becoming really alarming. The Commission in Brussels is unloved and too large for its own credibility. The EU Council cannot come to terms with Viktor Orbàn & Co. The world is packed with dead and ailing bodies, left after the slaughter inflicted by the unanimity curse. The Security Council of the UN is a corpse. The mortuary is making room for the EU.

The overall situation could be less dramatic if instead of indulgence in self-fulfilling prophecies, people were dialing         911 for a start.

The next months will be interesting. They might also be sobering. The dollar will rule, also in Moscow.  With friends as these, who needs (more) enemies?