BERLIN CALLS MOSCOW

Whenever the Germans and the Russians are talking, jitters appear.  Brest-Litovsk, Rapallo, the non-aggression pact with Russia, the Ostpolitik created, an unfortunately, rightly proven, malaise in Europe. The German Chancellor's calling Putin last week raises again the usual questions. Olaf Scholz heads a dying coalition inside and is almost a non persona outside. Besides breaking ranks with the EU and NATO, he leaves Kiev with unanswered questions. That Biden allowed Ukraine to use long- range missiles against Russia right now, will be seen by many as non-coincidental.

Obviously, sooner rather than later, one will have to talk to Moscow. Since this will be more than just small talk, this will require coordination with, and agreement of all. One should realize that the change of administration in Washington might create chaos and lead to a reversal of fortunes. Already Europeans know that the lovefest with America is a thing of the past. They should stay clear of clumsy initiatives they can hardly afford in this political international no man's land.

The United States is still a democracy until January. What might come later looks ominous, given President Trump's well-known deficits, both in history and personal chemistry. He despises what he perceives as Western European's condescending attitude. He likes A.I. because it doesn't talk back.

Europeans should be alarmed and better pay their NATO contribution in full, before getting rightfully humiliated. Macron's ideas regarding a degree of EU's strategic autonomy are correct, but coming from the French they become almost fatally suspect...

At least the French receive the benefit of the doubt. Since Helmut Kohl, the Germans have lost a lot of their luster. Angela Merkel's descent into purgatory is unfair, compared to Margaret Thatcher's continuous adulation. 

While leaders with global reach appear in the Middle East and Asia, they have become an endangered species in America and Europe. They fought AIDS and COVID successfully but the spread of populism keeps growing.

L 'AMERIQUE DESABUSEE

Le monde va mal. Il craque de partout. On enregistre (à peine) l'accident et on oublie les victimes.

L'Ukraine est une blessure permanente. Le Soudan est une amnésie. Ailleurs, en premier lieu au Proche-Orient, en Europe et en Asie, les certitudes se fragilisent. La guerre froide d'hier est devenue "fable" ou BD.

Arrive par dessus ce triste bilan ,Trump. Il fait beaucoup parler de lui, ce qui l'enchante. Celà est une excellente raison pour en parler moins, ce qui l'enrage. Déjà il rassemble son entourage, prévisible, et par conséquent inquiétant. Marco Rubio, à qui il réservait le sobriquer de "little Marco", deviendrait le Secrétaire d'Etat...On croit rêver. De toute façon les MAGA qui "débarquent" sont toutes et tous du mème aloi... opportunistes.   

Le camps adverse a besoin de sang froid et de recul . La bête doit être ignorée avant d'être achevée.

La victoire de Trump contraste avec la descente aux enfers de plusieurs leaders Européens. Les mèmes causes ont conduit à des résultats opposés dès deux cotés de l'Atlantique. Néanmoins on tend à exagérément dramatiser, comme si le système solaire était à tout jamais dérèglé. Il n'en est rien. Les péripéties politiques portent en elles le germe d'un terme annoncé. Plus grave est sans doute la hâte manifestée par les MAGAphiles à vouloir s'engouffrer dans le convoi gagnant, avant qu'il ne déraille .

Ces trains éphémères de grande vitesse empêchent l'observation plus maitrisée de la complexité. Celà finit par créér les conditions pour que les conflits, l'immigration, l'I.A. ou la perte de légimité des démocraties, apparaissent irréversibles. Faux ! Les nouvelles alliances, le bruit des populistes, le racisme le plus élémentaire bénéficient à court terme d'un bail sans doute, mais point de la durée

L'Amérique se remettra. L'opposition a perdu une bataille. Il est dommage que le reflexe anti-féministe reste aussi coriace. On se retrouvera en 2026 pour les prochaines législatives. On jugera un bilan a mi-terme qui apparaitra alors comme une syncope qu'il eut mieux fallu éviter.

 L'Europe, débarassée de la présidence Hongroise, pourra pour sa part enfin mieux considérer les suggestions pertinentes de Mario Draghi pour un réexamen et une thérapie urgents. 

Trump est moins toxique que son vice président. Le premier est usé, le suivant est pressé. 

Oh les beaux jours ...Pardon, Samuel Beckett.

VANCE VICTOR

Trump won. Kamala lost. And the winner is Vance. 

The MAGA tribe clicked with the Trump/Vance anti-immigrant stance and felt comfortable in the civil war which rages between the coast and the "fly-over" rest. The former Republican Party is dead...for now.

Kamala Harris was too abstract, too "French" maybe, to break through the imagined frustrations that still rule many hearts and minds in the heartland. The regular American male is impervious to sophistication and largely suspicious of metaphysics or abortion. The vice-president ended up being seen as an urban, elitist candidate with too little understanding of mostly the common male Angst.

Trump was "entertaining", personal, incoherent but forgiven for the non-stop lies and transgressions that made him male- friendly. Kamala won over educated women and men, straight and gay. Probably she was too often seen as a "one issue" candidate and ended up alienating a large chunk of the traditional Democrat electorate. Her choice for vice-president backfired. Waltz is a true loyal gentleman but hardly a match for his unscrupulous Republican opponent. The governor of Pennsylvania, Josh Shapiro, would have been the better option.

Trump has every reason to move fast. Biden's last months in office will be bittersweet. His own party is unkind. This man of another age already shows nevertheless more class than others, inviting the president-elect to the White House and going to the inauguration of a man he must loathe, rightly so.

The world will have to adapt to this new administration which may excel in chaos or bluff. Already the new vice-president, who is far more slick and slippery than his boss, receives more attention than other vice-presidents, even before inauguration. But he might have to protect his turf from Elon Musk, another vulture that Trump will let loose in a divide et impera mode. His entourage had better be on notice.

The culture war will only get nastier.

HET VERDRIET VAN BELGIE

Het Westen kampt overal met een soort legitimiteit storing. De V.S., Duitsland, Frankrijk o.a. lijden aan een kronische  moeilijk te definiëren aandoening, een politieke Krohn ziekte die hun psyche ontvricht.

De Belgische stilstand heeft minder te maken met existentiele problemen dan met een soort neurotisch ingebouwd provinciaal isolationisme, dat leidt tot een soort vervreemding en "non-actief". Dit land heeft niet langer een buitenlandse politiek, een defensie, laat staan een macro ekonomische bedrijfcultuur.

Het blijft uitkijken naar een federale regering. De onderhandelingen slepen aan en de lawine van het begrotings- tekort dreigt elke therapie met de dag  pijnlijker te maken. De onderlinge absurde regeringen maken ook een enge bedroevende indruk. De Vlaamse regering overweegt nu een soort bona fide taaldrempel test die alleen maar de "know how" van buitenlands talent aan de deur zet en leidt tot een een onvriendelijke integratie . De betere tijden van Flanders Technology en Jan Hoet's Chambres d'Amis zijn voorgoed voorbij. Blijft nog het dwaallicht in Genk.

Van Loo en Lanoye zijn de melancholische vertolkers van een vergeten melodie. Moest Bart De Wever Eerste Minister worden dan zal hij schrikken  van de ontoereikende middelen  waarmee hij zal worden geconfronteerd. Hij is intelligent genoeg om daaruit de pertinente gevolgen te trekken. Belgie verkeert in een zelf gegraven put. De meeste poltici zijn taal en internationaal onkundig. Zelf Conner Rousseau, het SP Wonderkind, begint meer te passen bij zijn Tik Tok truien dan in een aangepast profiel voor de internationale Buhne.

Waarschijnlijk blijven er nog personaliteiten over die nog de drempel van enige staaatszin kunnen bereiken. Van Peteghem, Vandenbroecke, Bertrand, Prévot zitten in dat peleton. Spaar het land van de Michels. Lahbib zit veilig in de EU onder het sceptisch oog van Van der Leyen....Ouf !

Belgie, droogt U tranen en bestraft liever de partijvoorzitters from hell, (Mahdi en Prevot uitgezonderd) .

TRUMP'S KRISTALLNACHT 5 11 24

The magnitude of Trump's win is awesome. His mandate is absolute in political terms.

Kamala Harris' loss is a slap in the face of the more liberal leaning Americans.

The Democrats' nakba is a tragedy for the men and women who still believed in the rescue of the American dream. The dream ended up in the gutter, like Richard III's crown.

The consequences for Americans will be enormous, given that the Senate and House will be under MAGA control. The Republican Party is dead, partially by its own moral betrayal.

There is not much that the traditional Western allies can do, since Trump's wrath will roam free. Netanjahu and Orban will be relieved. The axis Pyongyang /Beijing/ Moscow/ Teheran must feel glee. NATO, the EU, the Five eyes, Ukraine and Taiwan mostly, will have to regroup. The forgotten wars everywhere, and climate will wait. Destabilizing trends will amplify unabated.

America will cope, eventually, but the country is broken for now. It is impossible to sort cause and effect. Already some argue that Biden stayed too long, that Kamala Harris presented herself too often as a women's candidate. Both comments are largely unfair and the fable of the angry American male who flocked to Trump's machismo is unconvincing. It is far too early to make definitive assertations.

In the short run the dubious Trump court, packed with unpleasant characters, will remodel the ailing leftovers of the American democracy. It looks ominous, given the actors already under consideration.

At least Western Europe might benefit in some perverse way from this nightmare since some of the best will prefer to wait and see in more welcoming places than in America's heartland.

At the end of the day Kamala Harris' defeat is America's shame.

THE IDES OF NOVEMBER

America today doesn't make sense.

There is a president who inhabits some Ionesco scenario out of "Exit the King". Normally, one could expect him to represent calm and reason at times of scarcity of both. The reality is that everybody wants him to remain out of view...and remain silent. This is an ungrateful world alas wherein a too long goodbye , as Biden's, is already becoming a shroud which covers his impressive social and economic achievements. Times as these require a Churchill or a De Gaulle.  Even Macron would do. 

It is hazardous to predict the outcome of Tuesday's election. Both candidates sound and act exhausted. Both focus on parts of the electorate that they might have neglected for too long:  the vote of Generation X for Trump, the "frustrated" (read: dumb) males for Kamala Harris.

Trump is more wicked than he appears. Kamala is more sociologically wired than her stump speech often sounds. In reality, the day after Tuesday could unleash a beast that will unabashedly roam free. American institutions have become weakened through open hostile infiltration. A Faustian pact with the devil became normalized.

 History has a poor reputation in this country and it shows. The bitter aftermath of Europe's or China's "mistakes" should have taught Americans a lesson. The "costume MAGA parties" look ridiculous but they are, in real terms, frightening.

Whatever the outcome next week, America will lose once and for ever its fraudulent Disney image. There will be violence. If Trump were to win, the Pinochet mantra might appear in the Northern hemisphere. If Kamala Harris wins, a MAGA cataclysmic apocalypse will be unchained. Already the preparation is under way.

There are enough anti-genes in America to build up resistance but the rules and standards that apply in the better half will have to fight an uneven battle. Gerrmany's Reichswerh had a honor code after all. The manipulated MAGA hordes follow only the SA or SS .

The world at large looks on, most with fear, some with relish. The USA will sooner or later have to reexamine it workings. The democratic majority rule doesn't apply. The branches of government are independent in name only. The Supreme Court has become an alternative path for a political take-over. Societies come with their own perils, that is why they need the likes of Pasteur or Salk to survive. Here and now, America might end up with Musk and Robert Kennedy, Jr. instead.

Bonne route !

AMERICA BETWEEN GOOD AND EVIL

Americans in both parties look exhausted. Never, since the Civil War, has the country be as divided. The Democrats fight an uphill battle. Trump looks and sounds often demented but his strength lies in the connection he forged with mostly rural, often southern parts of the country, that are often evangelical and conservative. Kamala Harris appears too close to San Francisco and to the more sophisticated, liberal "elites", while in reality she is just a liberal, sophisticated persona, deferential to the changes that occur in society, demography, culture and the new economy.

It is certainly paradoxical that Donald Trump, New Yorker, wealthy parvenu, became the crusader for the often less-affluent, less-educated, predominantly white male voters. This doesn't stop some of the wealthiest, often found among the High Tech wizards, to forego his vulgarity and to lend him generous financial support. Elon Musk acts as his Goebbels. The Hitler precedent comes often up but the Fuhrer in the early 1930s looked rather smart....  The international cabal (an arc of contradictory countries which covers such unlikely countries from North Korea, Russia to Israel...) favors the like-minded (?) MAGA candidate.

Kamala Harris needs to clearly distance herself, as much as courtesy allows, from President Biden, who showed again how dangerous he can be when allowed "free speech". His comments about the Trump followers are erasing the gaffes of the comedian who made the unfortunate utterance regarding Puerto Rico. Biden became a godsend for the GOP. Kamala must think "with friends like these....".

The polls are inconclusive, the mood is somber. If Trump wins, America will enter into a repetitive pattern of deconstruction and revenge. If Kamala Harris becomes president, the MAGA Sturmtruppen will repeat and expand on their January 6 Capitol riot and sabotage the rule of law. Internationally, Trump will not be shy to embrace Orban rather than Macron or to find a deal with Putin on the back of Zelensky. While the remnants of the former world order are under fire by the expanding BRICS, the EU and NATO might well arrive at the conclusion Wir schaffen das NICHT.

A Harris presidency would be applauded by most in the EU and be approached with caution worldwide. She is a persona with class, a woman with a contemporary mindset, a Mensch...In so many words the choice is easy, between a healer and a destroyer.